Oahu Surf Report

San Francisco Santa Cruz Monterey San Luis Obispo Santa Barbara Ventura/Oxnard Los Angeles Orange County San Diego Kauai Oahu Maui Big Island
 
Wednesday, October 17th, 7:20pm PDT
Hawaii Buoys Swell Wind Temp
NORTHWESTERN HAWAII ONE
 
6.9 ft 12 sec 333° 8-10 kt 40° 79.7 °F
NORTHWESTERN HAWAII TWO
 
7.5 ft 12 sec 335° 8-10 kt 40° 79.5 °F
NORTHERN HAWAII ONE
 
9.2 ft 14 sec 314° 6-8 kt 50° 79.5 °F
WHOTS
 
--- --- --- 12 kt 70° 79.7 °F
Hanalei, Kauai, HI
 
8.9 ft 14 sec --- --- --- 81.0 °F
Waimea Bay, HI
 
7.5 ft 13 sec 324° --- --- 78.1 °F
Kaneohe Bay, WETS, HI
 
5.9 ft 14 sec --- --- --- 80.6 °F
Kaneohe Bay, HI
 
6.2 ft 14 sec 344° --- --- 80.2 °F
Mokapu Point, HI
 
5.6 ft 14 sec --- --- --- 80.1 °F
Barbers Point, Kalaeloa, HI
 
4.6 ft 15 sec --- --- --- 82.8 °F
Pearl Harbor Entrance, HI
 
2.6 ft 13 sec 162° --- --- 81.3 °F
Pauwela, Maui, HI
 
10.2 ft 14 sec --- --- --- 81.5 °F
Kaumalapau Southwest, Lanai, HI
 
3.3 ft 14 sec 304° --- --- 83.3 °F
Hilo, Hawaii, HI
 
8.5 ft 15 sec 338° --- --- 81.3 °F
WESTERN HAWAII
 
8.5 ft 14 sec 313° 14-16 kt 60° 82.6 °F
SOUTHEAST HAWAII
 
7.5 ft 16 sec 324° 16-17 kt 70° 81.9 °F
SOUTHWEST HAWAII
 
7.2 ft 15 sec 341° --- --- ---
Tanapag, Saipan, NMI
 
3.3 ft 9 sec --- --- --- 84.4 °F
Ipan, Guam
 
3.0 ft 9 sec --- --- --- 84.6 °F
Kalo, Majuro, Marshall Islands
 
3.9 ft 14 sec 164° --- --- 86.5 °F
Aunuu, American Samoa
 
10.2 ft 13 sec --- --- --- 82.9 °F
Buoy data courtesy of NOAA and CDIP
 

NORTHWESTERN HAWAII TWO (NOAA 51101)

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Waimea Bay, Oahu (CDIP 106)

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Mokapu Point, Oahu (CDIP 098)

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View all buoy charts  >>
Buoy data courtesy of NOAA and CDIP
 
Waimea Bay Buoy 7-day Forecast
Waimea Bay buoy forecast courtesy of CDIP
 
Waimea Bay buoy directional graphic courtesy of CDIP
 
 Oahu Wind Observations
KahukuNE(53°)5-10 kt3:00 pm  Wed 10/17
Kahuku TrngENE(77°)5-14 kt2:59 pm  Wed 10/17
KiiENE(64°)10-14 kt2:45 pm  Wed 10/17
Oahu Forest NwrE(95°)14-20 kt3:36 pm  Wed 10/17
Kaneohe Mcbh--
BellowsNE(55°)13-16 kt3:00 pm  Wed 10/17
Honolulu ApN(3°)15-20 kt3:00 pm  Wed 10/17
Honouliuli Fws--
Waiawa Fws--
Schofield BrksNE(38°)5 kt2:57 pm  Wed 10/17
Schofield South--
Wheeler AafENE(62°)8-15 kt3:30 pm  Wed 10/17
KalaeloaN(5°)7-16 kt3:00 pm  Wed 10/17
PalehuaNE(45°)0-10 kt3:36 pm  Wed 10/17
Waianae ValleyWSW(248°)6-14 kt3:37 pm  Wed 10/17
Waianae HarborESE(122°)3-13 kt3:15 pm  Wed 10/17
Makua RangeE(81°)13-19 kt2:58 pm  Wed 10/17
KuaokalaCalm3:36 pm  Wed 10/17

Wind observations courtesy of the National Weather Service
 
Haleiwa, Oahu tide chart


Waimanalo, Oahu tide chart


Honolulu, Oahu tide chart
Tide chart courtesy of The University of South Carolina
 
Oahu cloud cover
Satellite imagery courtesy of the National Weather Service
 
Tropical storms map courtesy of the University of Hawaii Institute for Astronomy
 
Coastal waters forecast courtesy of the National Weather Service
 
FZHW52 PHFO 171332 SRFHFO Surf Zone Forecast National Weather Service Honolulu HI 332 AM HST Wed Oct 17 2018 Oahu- 332 AM HST Wed Oct 17 2018
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES... Surf along north facing shores will be 16 to 24 feet today, decreasing to 10 to 14 feet Thursday. Surf along west facing shores will be 12 to 18 feet today, decreasing to 6 to 10 feet Thursday. Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday. Outlook through Wednesday October 24: The current large north-northwest swell will peak today and then ease Thursday through Friday. A smaller north swell is possible over the weekend, with peak surf heights below advisory levels. Surf along south facing shores will remain elevated, but below advisory levels, through today. A new large south swell is expected to arrive Friday, peaking near warning levels Saturday into Sunday. Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.




Oahu surf zone forecast courtesy of the National Weather Service
 
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI

259 PM HST WED OCT 17 2018


This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
10/17
8NNW151520DOWN13-19ENESAME
5ENE724SAME
3SSW1346SAME
THU
10/18
7NNW121015DOWNMED11-16EDOWN
5ENE724DOWNMED
2SSW1234DOWNLOW
1SSW1724UPLOW
FRI
10/19
6NNW10810UPLOW7-10ENESAME
2SSW1635SAMELOW
2SSW2247UPLOW
SAT
10/20
5N1068DOWNLOW9-13NEUP
5SSW181014UPLOW
SUN
10/21
4N1046DOWNLOW11-16ENEUP
5SSW171014SAMELOW
MON
10/22
3NNW1146UPLOW11-16ESAME
5SSW16812DOWNLOW
LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... More common October surf in the latter part of the week for northern shores while uncommonly high surf arrives for southern exposures.

DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has breakers from 320-345 degrees at levels well above the October average-- more like the January average. Heights are expected to trend down though remain above the October average on Thursday.

A broad low pressure system to 967 mb strengthened as it moved east along 50N near the Date Line 10/13-14 and occluded 10/14 north of Hawaii. It slowly moved NNE into the eastern Bering Sea 10/15-17.

NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 mid day 10/17 show the long- period phase of 16-19s wave energy has ended. The dominant wave period is shifting to moderate wave periods of 12-15s.

The large circulation 10/14-17 maintained near gales from near the Aleutians west of the Date Line to near 40N north of Hawaii. 10/17 morning ASCAT shows the system has weakened substantially and the fetch area is no longer aiming at Hawaii. Surf from the tail of the fetch through 10/16 PM should keep shorter period surf into Sunday from 330-360 degrees.

A low pressure formed along the front associated with the above low pressure. This compact near gale near 40N, 170W 10/16 is tracking east 10/17 NNW of Hawaii. The strong to near gale breezes are expected to reach about 500 nm away north of Hawaii early Thursday with the system east of the Hawaii swell window late Thursday 10/18.

Shorter-period surf from 330-360 should override the remote shorter-period surf of similar direction building Friday to near the October average in the PM. This event should hold into Saturday then slowly drop into Sunday.

Another near gale in the models near the Date Line at 40N 10/18-19 could keep small surf from 320-340 degrees Monday. The north Pacific jet stream 10/19-22 is modelled to go zonal, or more west- to-east, which is usually associated with below average surf locally.

Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers from 40-70 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. Heights are expected to remain low from this direction on Thursday.

More northerly exposures of the east side should remain active through the weekend aforementioned.

Though trades are in the local forecast, the upstream fetch is short, so breakers from trade wind waves should remain low through the period. The the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for more details on the trend in the local winds.

Mid Wednesday on southern shores has breakers from 180-220 degrees above the summer average. Heights are expected to drop on Thursday.

The characteristics of the southerly swell in the NOAA and PacIOOS buoys 10/17 are difficult to distinguish given the active NNW swell. Surf cams show surf has not changed much on 10/17 from 10/16. Given every day of October has been at the summer average or greater, there has been a lot of austal extra-tropical low pressures in the Hawaii swell window over the last two weeks. With the long travel, such active patterns are slow to fade away-- a quasi-explanation of why the surf held on into 10/17. Thursday should see a minimum before another round of above average surf arrives for the weekend.

A gale in the Tasman Sea and east of New Zealand 10/11-12 pushed into the subtropics to near 3500 nm away. Forerunners from this source are due on Thursday and should be filled in near the summer average on Friday from 190-220 degrees.

The south Pacific, mid-latitude jet stream set up a sharp ridge over the Tasman Sea and a sharp trough east of New Zealand 10/12-14. A large area of low pressure near 65S to the SE of New Zealand moved slowly east as severe gales to storm-force winds nosed into the Hawaii swell window to the S of New Zealand early 10/12 then to E of New Zealand by early 10/13. Seas over 30 feet covered an area from 170E-170W, 45-65S by early 10/13. The long, wide fetch had direct aim at Hawaii. The pattern remained fairly stationary into 10/15 with mostly gales over this exceptionally large wave generation region. This should make for a long-lived, well-above average event locally.

The PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy showed the start of the 18-22s long-wave period energy late 10/15 with a slow build into late 10/16. This suggests a similar slow build-up locally starting early Friday with inconsistent long-period sets from 190-200 degrees. Heights could climb above average on the sets Friday PM.

The event should be filled in by Saturday from 180-200 degrees and continue to build well above average in the PM. The event should remain well above average into Monday from the same direction.

Into the long range, given the large source area, the event should change slowly 10/23 with a downward trend into 10/24 as a new event builds. The source for the next one can be seen in the ASCAT satellite ocean surface winds 10/16 PM and 10/17 AM with a large, wide fetch of severe gales aimed at Hawaii to the SE of New Zealand. Models show the nose of the gales pushing to the subtropics by 10/19 as the associated low pressure moves east near 55S. This should make for another well-above average event locally. It should be filled in by 10/24 PM and remain elevated from 180-200 degrees into 10/26. Models suggest the low occluding near 150W south of French Polynesia 10/20, with a few more days of wave generation over the 175-185 degree band aimed at Hawaii. This would keep above average surf into the last week of October.

In the northern hemisphere, mostly below average events are suggested from NW to NNW 10/23-25. Models have been hinting at a tropical low pressure becoming extratropical NNW of Hawaii 10/23. This could trend the surf up locally 10/26-27 from NNW to N.

East side is expected to remain below average 10/23-25.

Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, October 19.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Pat Caldwell surf report courtesy of the National Weather Service
 
Wetsand Hawaii 7-day forecast
Surfline Oahu North Shore 3-day forecast
Oahu South Shore 3-day forecast
Magic Seaweed Pipeline 10-day forecast
Ala Moana 10-day forecast
Long-range surf forecasts provided by Wetsand, Surfline and Magicseaweed